Bob Dylan once famously sang “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” He was referring to a growing protest movement that would change the social structure of America. From the Summer of Love to the Arab Spring, weather has played a fundamental role in the success or failure of uprisings, revolts and acts of civil disobedience.
As Occupy Wall Street moves into its seventh week, and pundits, bloggers, and analysts wager on the longevity of the movement; scrutinizing it’s message, it’s loose organization, and even the appearance of it’s protesters to provide telling cues, they should instead consult Mother Nature. Given New York’s weather records for last winter, which went down in history as one of the city’s worst, grounding flights and bringing the city to a snowy blizzarding standstill coupled with the recent snowstorm that blew through New York over the weekend—a harbinger of icier days to come— the Occupy movement is in danger of a chilling effect.
“Weather plays an overlooked role in the success or failure of civil disobedience.”
Protests, by their very nature, require large groups of people to congregate outdoors. Thus weather plays an overlooked role in the success or failure of civil disobedience. But it’s not just limited to protests: Dating back through history, nature has played a part in man’s battles waged under the open sky. The great Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu tells us in The Art of War that having an environmental advantage is one of the core elements to winning any battle. “Know the ground, know the weather,” Tzu tells us, “Your victory will then be total.”
His message must have reached Ghengis Khan, who capitalized on an exceptionally cold winter and frozen marshlands in 1206 to invade China in an overlooked area that was left nearly undefended. And George Washington and his continental army, who in August of 1776 found themselves trapped on Long Island outnumbered by the British army without the ability to pack in new supplies. That is, until a dense fog rolled in, growing thicker and thicker until the men snuck away right under the noses of their enemies. But examples of weather’s hand in battle are not relegated to the distant past: In World War II, December 1944, American General George S. Patton understood the importance of aligning with nature. Faced with a steady and immobilizing downpour during the Battle of the Bulge, his army was hamstrung, unable to provide relief to beseiged American troops in the Belgian town of Bastogne. To the incredulity of the general staff of the Allied nations, Patton commissioned a wallet-sized weather prayer to be distributed to his 250,0000 soldiers, asking God to “restrain these immoderate rains.” A few days later his wish was granted. The rains let up just long enough for his soldiers to break the German encirclement and provide reinforcements to secure the city.
While the so-called 99% behind Occupy Wall Street may not be engaged in all-out war, their ability to adapt to increasingly harsh elements will likely be the deciding factor in the movement’s survival. This past weekend, snow fell across Manhattan—only the fourth time in over 100 years that New York has seen snow in October— while temperatures all across the eastern seaboard dropped below freezing. The number of Wall Street protesters shrank to a core group of about 100 demonstrators in Zuccotti Park, and those that stayed were buffeted by strong winds, hunkered down beneath a patchwork of blue and green plastic tarps.
Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently said he would allow the protesters to remain in Zuccotti Park indefinitely as long as they do not put up tents. But he has also speculated publicly that changing weather might limit Occupy Wall Street’s duration, saying in a Wall Street Journal interview he has “no idea” when the occupation will end, but adding, “I think part of it has probably to do with the weather.” Recently, he upped the ante by ordering the removal of all electrical generators from the Lower Manhattan park, forcing the protesters to devise alternate means to stay warm.
The great Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu tells us in The Art of War that having an environmental advantage is one of the core elements to winning any battle. “Know the ground, know the weather,” Tzu tells us, “Your victory will then be total.”
As eyes turn to dropping thermometers, it is only a matter of time before Occupy Wall Street becomes a battle pitched not between the Wall Street elite and the disenfranchized 99%, but between human willpower and an increasingly hostile environment. Already, there have been reports of hypothermia. Despite these challenges, many protesters remain undeterred: according to one Reuters interview, protester Alan Collinge estimated that one in five left over the past weekend due to the winter storm. But added: “They’ll be back, we’re not going anywhere.” ‘Snow, what snow? I’ve got a country to worry about,” read a sign held by a girl in Zuccotti Park as snow dumped on Saturday. In response to the chill, the official Occupy website has posted an urgent bulletin requesting donations for warm weather gear, including long underwear, waterproof boots, gloves, insulated hats, all-weather tents and hot beverages.
And yet, as more and more cities around the world take up Occupy’s cry, and the protest gains international momentum with sister-protests springing up in Japan, China, Europe, and Mexico, as well as numerous U.S. cities (causing the 99% to rename themselves Occupy Everywhere), there is evidence the movement has found a way to outrun nature’s obstacles. Despite dropping temperatures, Occupy is now a global and digital movement, with citizens of cities across the world rallying to the message. There are signs that even if those occupying Wall Street pack it in for the winter, the so-called 99% will weather the storm.
After all, as much as weather can dictate the outcome of battle, history has also proven that wide gulfs between the rich and poor never bodes well for the stability of a society, in any climate. And as one protester @Andrej_Pejik said in a tweet: “We interrupt this broadcast to bring you a special message about the forecast. The future’s cloudy and it’s raining on the poor.”
—Shauna Sweeney is an editor at MYOO. Follow her @ShaunaSweeney.
